Budget balance despite weak economy
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
The central government budget will largely be in balance in the next two years,
despite weaker growth. The deficit this year will be a moderate SEK 11 billion
and next year will bring a modest surplus of SEK 3 billion, according to the
latest Debt Office forecast. Hence the economic slowdown will have a limited
impact on both central government finances and borrowing.
Our new forecast for the budget balance in 2012 shows a deficit of SEK 11
billion. For 2013 we expect a surplus of SEK 3 billion.
Weak domestic demand and weak demand in our key export markets are reducing
growth prospects this year and unemployment is rising. This affects central
government finances through reduced tax revenues and increased labour market
expenditure.
Our forecast assumes that the debt problems in the euro zone will be dealt with
in an orderly although protracted process and that confidence in the economy
will grow gradually in the course of 2012.
As confidence returns, consumption and investment will recover and the economy
will grow faster. However, there is a risk that continued fiscal austerity in
the euro zone will restrict the pace of recovery.
Slight increase in central government borrowing
Central government borrowing will increase by SEK 33 billion this year and 27
billion next year compared with the previous forecast, since the economy is
developing somewhat less vigorously than we previously anticipated. Nominal
government bonds account for half the increase. Funding in T-bills will also be
greater. Bond borrowing in foreign currency will also increase somewhat, due to
our funding a larger part of on-lending to the Riksbank on the bond market.
Increased government bond borrowing
The issue volume of nominal government bonds will increase by SEK 15 billion to
SEK 50 billion in 2012 compared with the October forecast. In 2013 we plan to
borrow SEK 53 billion in government bonds, an increase of SEK 20 billion.
Adjustment to the greater issue volume will be made by increasing the number of
auctions. We are now reintroducing the auctions that were removed from the issue
plan when we revised the borrowing forecast last year. We plan to maintain the
issue volume of SEK 2.5 billion per auction in 2012 and 2013.
Central government debt largely unchanged
Central government debt will be about SEK 20 billion greater in 2012 compared
with our previous forecast. At the close of 2012 we expect central government
debt to be SEK 1 143 billion or 32.8 per cent of GDP. In 2013 the debt will be
largely unchanged, though it will continue to fall relative to GDP.
For more information, please contact:
Håkan Carlsson, budget forecast, +46 8 613 47 33
Thomas Olofsson, borrowing, +46 8 613 47 82
Central Government Borrowing, Forecast and Analysis 2012:1:
http://hugin.info/133745/R/1591502/500238.pdf
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Source: Riksgälden via Thomson Reuters ONE
[HUG#1591502]
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 06.03.2012 - 09:30 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 121930
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contact information:
Town:
Stockholm
Kategorie:
Business News
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"Budget balance despite weak economy"
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