AIR Estimates Insured Losses in Germany from Historic Floods
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
For Immediate Release:
AIR Estimates Insured Losses in Germany from Historic Floods at between EUR 4.0
Billion and EUR 5.8 Billion
BOSTON, June 19, 2013 - Catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates
insured losses in Germany from the recent floods in central Europe at between
EUR 4.0 billion and EUR 5.8 billion. The overall economic impact is expected to
be much higher. While the worst damage has already occurred, this flood event is
ongoing.
"An extraordinarily wet May and several days of heavy and relentless rainfall in
June have resulted in the worst flooding to hit parts of central Europe in many
years," said Yorn Tatge, managing director of AIR Worldwide GmbH. "Germany,
Austria, and the Czech Republic have suffered the brunt of the flooding, the
worst since the Elbe flood of 2002, but Switzerland, Hungary, Slovakia, and
Poland have also been affected."
In comparison, AIR estimates that the 2002 Elbe floods, which affected a smaller
area, would cause approximately EUR 5.0 billion in insured losses or more were
it to recur today, after accounting for changes in the penetration of flood
coverage and the growth in building stock and values.
Tatge continued, "Floodwaters hit Germany hardest, particularly the east and
south German states of Thuringia, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Lower-Saxony, and
Bavaria. Several levees along the Elbe River near Magdeburg, the capital of
Saxony-Anhalt state, were breached or in danger of a breach as flood water rose
more than 16 feet above normal. In Passau, located at the intersection of the
Danube, Inn, and Ilz rivers, floodwaters hit their highest level since 1501,
while the Saale River in Halle, Germany, reached its highest level in its 400
years of record keeping."
Over the course of two days (May 30-June 1), portions of Austria received the
equivalent of two and a half months of rainfall (150 to 200 mm). Isolated
regions experienced 250 mm. The rising Danube River threatened the cities of
Linz and Melk, and flood alerts were issued for the western provinces of
Vorarlberg, Tyrol, and Salzburg, as well as northern parts of Upper Austria.
Flooding in Tyrol and Styria is considered the worst in the area since 2002.
In the Czech Republic flood warnings were put in place for 40 cities, including
the capital, Prague. A state of emergency was also in effect in Prague, as well
as other areas including South and Central Bohemia, Plzen, Liberec, Hradec
Kralove, and Usti.
Budapest, the capital and largest city in Hungary, is expected to see record
flood levels but should not receive significant damage.
Meteorological Background
According to AIR, the heavy, persistent rains were the result of a low pressure
system called a Genoa Low Cyclogenesis, which developed over the eastern
Adriatic Sea. From there it moved northwards towards the Eastern Alps, bringing
with it warm, moist air from the Black Sea. As this warm air mass collided with
the colder air masses over northern Europe, it was lifted up and rain clouds
developed. The system, named Frederik, remained over Central Europe for several
days due to a very stable track, but has now moved on towards southeast Europe.
The event has released an enormous amount of precipitation-in some areas as much
as 400 liters per square meter within a few days. In Aschau-Stein, more than
405 liters per square meter of precipitation fell within 90 hours. Over a nine-
day period from May 29 to June 6 more than 300 mm of rain fell on some areas. In
Germany, more than 60 river gauges were reported to be in their highest flood-
warning zones. River gauges along the Danube, where the water level reached 12
m, were rendered inoperable. Several tributaries rose above the 100-year water
level.
Exposure at Risk and Insurance Penetration
According to AIR, the predominant construction type for single family homes in
Europe is masonry and around 90% of the homes in the countries affected by this
event are of masonry construction, with the remainder usually being wood; a few
are reinforced concrete. As most of the homes are one-story buildings, floods
can damage a significant percentage of the buildings and their contents. The
presence of a cellar increases the risk for contents damage, although heavily-
used cellars often have better flood defenses than unfinished ones.
Apartment buildings in the affected regions are of masonry and reinforced
concrete. Commercial buildings are typically of masonry or reinforced concrete,
with masonry being the predominant type in Germany and Austria. Note that many
buildings in Europe have mixed occupancies, with the ground floor used for shops
while the upper floors are residential. Unlike single-family homes, these
buildings often have a large degree of engineering and are built to stricter
standards with sophisticated flood defenses, particularly in flood-prone areas.
The average take-up rate for residential buildings across Germany is estimated
at around 35%. However, there are significant regional differences in insurance.
Note that consistent with what has been observed in previous events, including
the 2002 floods, AIR expects much of the loss from the 2013 event to occur
outside the floodplain. Smaller claims from off-floodplain losses can add up to
constitute a significant portion of total insured losses. Given the duration of
this event, AIR expects the flood to be treated as a single occurrence in
Germany.
Note to editors:
AIR's loss estimates reflect:
* AIR's assumed take-up rates in Germany, about which there is uncertainty
* Insured physical damage to property (residential, commercial, industrial,
auto), both structures and their contents, from both on- and off-floodplain
flooding
* Additional living expenses (ALE) for residential claims and business
interruption (BI) for commercial claims
Loss estimates do not reflect:
* Losses to uninsured properties
* Losses to infrastructure
* Losses from extra-contractual obligations
* Losses from hazardous waste cleanup, vandalism, or civil commotion, whether
directly or indirectly caused by the event
* Demand surge
* Other non-modeled losses
AIR will continue to analyze information from the event and will provide
additional information as warranted.
About AIR Worldwide
AIR Worldwide (AIR) is the scientific leader and most respected provider of risk
modeling software and consulting services. AIR founded the catastrophe modeling
industry in 1987 and today models the risk from natural catastrophes and
terrorism in more than 90 countries. More than 400 insurance, reinsurance,
financial, corporate, and government clients rely on AIR software and services
for catastrophe risk management, insurance-linked securities, detailed site-
specific wind and seismic engineering analyses, and agricultural risk
management. AIR is a member of the Verisk Insurance Solutions group at Verisk
Analytics (Nasdaq:VRSK) and is headquartered in Boston with additional offices
in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-
worldwide.com.
###
For more information, contact:
Kevin Long
AIR Worldwide
617-267-6645
klong(at)air-worldwide.com
This announcement is distributed by Thomson Reuters on behalf of
Thomson Reuters clients. The owner of this announcement warrants that:
(i) the releases contained herein are protected by copyright and
other applicable laws; and
(ii) they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and
originality of the information contained therein.
Source: AIR Worldwide via Thomson Reuters ONE
[HUG#1710747]
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Datum: 19.06.2013 - 23:49 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 271535
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