Swedish budget deficit lingers on slower economic recovery
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
Sweden's central government budget will show a deficit for at least two more
years as the economic rebound takes longer than expected. The Debt Office
expects a deficit of SEK 60 billion in 2014, SEK 51 billion in 2015 and SEK 13
billion in 2016.
The budget deficit - the net borrowing requirement - for 2014 is in line with
the Debt Office's previous forecast. Next year's deficit, however, is SEK 40
billion higher than predicted in June. Slower economic growth will curb tax
income, at the same time as some expenditures rise.
The Debt Office now expects the Swedish economy to grow by 1.9 per cent this
year and 2.2 per cent in 2015. This is a reduction of 0.8 percentage points for
each year compared with the previous forecast. In 2016, growth will pick up to
2.7 per cent.
- The weaker development of international demand, especially in the euro zone,
means that Swedish exports will grow at a slower pace than previously expected
and that the recovery will be delayed, says Hans Lindblad, Director General of
the Debt Office.
Against the background of the uncertainty prevailing before the budget vote in
the Riksdag, the Debt Office chose to make a technical assumption for its
calculations to the effect that this forecast is based on unchanged rules for
income and expenditure. The forecast changes are therefore wholly due to
macroeconomic factors and volume changes.
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|Central government net borrowing requirement and debt (SEK billion) |
+------------------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+
| | 2014| 2015| 2016|
+------------------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+
|Net borrowing requirement (budget deficit) | 60| 51| 13|
+------------------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+
|Central government debt |1,380|1,419|1,431|
+------------------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+
|Central government debt as a percentage of GDP | 35 %| 35 %| 34 %|
+------------------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+
|Central government debt including on-lending and money- | 29 %| 29 %| 28 %|
|market assets as a percentage of GDP | | | |
+------------------------------------------------------------+-----+-----+-----+
Two new inflation-linked bonds and increased foreign-currency borrowing
The increased borrowing requirement in 2015 will be funded by foreign-currency
bonds and money-market borrowing. The issue volume in government bonds will
remain at SEK 3.5 billion per auction.
Borrowing in T-bills will be lower at the end of 2015 than previously planned.
Instead, borrowing in commercial paper will increase.
The issue volume in inflation-linked bonds is unchanged from the June forecast.
The Debt Office will introduce two new inflation-linked bonds during the first
half of 2015: one with a four-year maturity and one with a 17-year maturity.
+--------------------------------------------------------------+
| Borrowing (SEK billion) |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| Government bonds | 77 | 77 | 77 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| Inflation-linked bonds | 17 | 18 | 18 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| T-bills | 100 | 110 | 120 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| Commercial paper | 95 | 100 | 40 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| Foreign-currency bonds | 84 | 97 | 77 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
| - of which on-lending to the Riksbank | 59 | 57 | 55 |
+-----------------------------------------+------+------+------+
Contact:
Thomas Olofsson, Head of Debt Management, +46 8 613 47 82
Linda Wik, Public Relations Officer, +46 8 613 46 18
Central government borrowing ? forecast and analysis 2014:3:
http://hugin.info/133745/R/1878421/662143.pdf
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Source: Riksgälden via GlobeNewswire
[HUG#1878421]
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Datum: 09.12.2014 - 09:30 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 358046
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