Brighter outlook for Nordic exports
(Thomson Reuters ONE) - An improved outlook for the global economy will brighten the outlookfor Nordic exports in the coming months. Still, a turn for the betterin unemployment in the Nordic countries is not to be expected until2010. This is what the Nordea economists conclude in EconomicOutlook.- We can now see that the spring optimism in financial markets wasjustified. Many economies around the world have now emerged from therecession, supported by a highly expansionary and to a large extentcoordinated economic policy implemented by governments around theworld, says Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist in Nordea.The next big challenge for governments and central banks around theworld is to define the appropriate exit strategy away from theircurrent expansionary economic policies. It is crucial to avoidanother financial market collapse and a new global economicrecession.The storm that has ravaged the Danish economy for about 18 monthsfinally seems to peter out. The improved outlook for the globaleconomy will also brighten the outlook for Danish exports, and thegradual improvement of the financial market situation has alsofiltered through to Denmark, resulting in lower interest rates.Moreover, during the remainder of 2009 and in 2010 the effect of thegovernment's rescue packages will also start to show through. Still,a further sharp increase in unemployment cannot be avoided.With its large export sector the Swedish economy was hard hit by lastyear's collapse in world trade. There are now signs that Sweden mayemerge relatively quickly from the crisis thanks to the internationalrecovery coupled with highly expansionary conditions at home.Indicators reflect an upswing in the manufacturing industry in therest of 2009. At the same time households' growing consumption plansare supported by a fairly high savings ratio. Swedish governmentfinances are adversely affected by a sustained rise in unemploymentas well as continued fiscal policy measures.The recession is over in Norway. After two quarters of decliningactivity in the mainland economy, growth slipped slightly intopositive territory again in the second quarter of 2009. Consumptiongrowth is rising sharply driven by substantial rate cuts. Higherexport market growth, a sustained high level of investment in the oilsector and strong growth in public sector demand will also contributeto strong GDP growth. Unemployment will follow an uptrend that looksset to flatten in 2010, though.The Finnish economy contracted sharply during the winter, especiallydue to the heavy drop in exports. With the advent of spring, therewere increasing signs of the economy stabilising, though. In thesecond half of 2009 we are set to witness quite a marked turn for thebetter in the Finnish economy thanks to the pick-up in global trade.However, the brisk rise will not last very long unless final demandin the export markets recovers. Economic growth will be reasonable inthe next few years. A turn for the better in employment is not to beexpected until well into 2010.View an interview with Helge J. Pedersen and download the report.For further information:Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist +45 33 33 31 26http://hugin.info/1151/R/1338445/319318.pdfThis announcement was originally distributed by Hugin. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
Datum: 01.09.2009 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
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