Iceland Leading Indicator - Improved fish catches and debit card turnover
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, April 19, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite
Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose by 0.4 per cent in March. Also, the
February value was revised upwards. The CLI still indicates growth above long
term trend.
Three of the six components rise on the previous month with the largest impact
being due to the increase of the value of fish catches and the increase domestic
debit card turnover. All components are adjusted for seasonality and long term
trend. The long-term trend of some important CLI components is still strong. The
main risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation
to the geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For March, three of the six underlying components are
strengthening year on year. Also, three of the six components rise on the
previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for March rises by 0.4 per cent to 100.9. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. September 2017.
A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017
Change in % Indication
-----------------------
Index on month YOY for month
2016
March 101.4 -0.1 % 1.6 % Sept. 2016
April 101.2 -0.1 % 1.6 % Oct.
May 101.1 -0.1 % 1.4 % Nov.
June 101.1 -0.1 % 1.1 % Dec.
July 101.1 0.0 % 0.8 % Jan. 2017
August 101.1 0.1 % 0.5 % Feb.
September 101.1 0.0 % 0.3 % March
October 101.0 -0.2 % 0.0 % April
November 100.7 -0.3 % -0.4 % May
December 100.4 -0.3 % -0.9 % June
2017
January 100.2 -0.1 % -1.2 % July
February 100.5 0.3 % -0.9 % August
March 100.9 0.4 % -0.4 % Sept.
The April Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on May 18, 2017.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi(at)analytica.is
This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via GlobeNewswire
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 19.04.2017 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 536957
Anzahl Zeichen: 3655
contact information:
Town:
Reykjavik
Kategorie:
Business News
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