Iceland Leading Indicator - Growth normalization ahead?
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, June 26, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite
Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland remains unchanged in May. However, the
values for March and April are slightly revised downwards. The CLI indicates
growth may be normalizing. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may contract in Q2 on
the previous quarter. Nevertheless, growth on the year may still stay above its
long-term trend.
Three of the six components contract on the previous month with the largest
impact being due to the fall in the number of tourist arrivals and in consumer
confidence, both after adjusting for seasonality and long-term trend. However,
the long-term trend of some important CLI components remains strong. The main
risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation to the
geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For May, three of the six underlying components contract
year on year. Furthermore, three of the six components contract on the previous
month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for May remains unchanged at 100.3. This value serves as an indicator to
economic activity six months into the future, i.e. November 2017. A value of
100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017
Change in % Indication
--------------------
Index on month YOY for month
2016
May 101.1 -0.1% 1.4% Nov. 2016
June 101.0 -0.1% 1.1% Dec.
July 101.0 -0.1% 0.7% Jan. 2017
August 101.0 0.0% 0.5% Feb.
September 100.9 0.0% 0.3% March
October 100.8 -0.2% 0.0% April
November 100.4 -0.3% -0.5% May
December 100.1 -0.4% -1.1% June
2017
January 99.9 -0.2% -1.5% July
February 100.0 0.1% -1.4% August
March 100.2 0.2% -1.1% Sept.
April 100.3 0.1% -0.9% Oct.
May 100.3 0.0% -0.8% Nov.
The June Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on July 18, 2017.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi(at)analytica.is
This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via GlobeNewswire
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 26.06.2017 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 549691
Anzahl Zeichen: 3799
contact information:
Town:
Reykjavik
Kategorie:
Business News
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"Iceland Leading Indicator - Growth normalization ahead?"
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