Iceland Leading Indicator - Slower tourism growth
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, July 18, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite
Leading Indicator (CLI) dropped in June by 0.3 per cent. Also, the values for
March through May are revised downwards. The CLI indicates growth may be
normalizing. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may contract in Q2 on the previous
quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. Nevertheless, growth on the year may
still stay above its long-term trend.
Three of the six components contract on the previous month. After adjusting for
seasonality and long-term trend there is a contraction on the month for both the
number of tourist arrivals and consumer confidence. These constitute the largest
factors contributing to the CLI drop. However, the long-term trend of some
important CLI components remains strong. The main risk factors continue to
include some external factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For June, three of the six underlying components contract
year on year. Furthermore, three of the six components contract on the previous
month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for June drops to 99.5 or by 0.3 per cent. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. December 2017. A
value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017
Change in % Indication
Index on month YOY for month
--------- ------------ ------------ -------------
2016
June 101.2 -0.1 % 1.2 % Dec. 2016
July 101.2 0 % 0.8 % Jan. 2017
August 101.2 0 % 0.6 % Feb.
September 101.2 0 % 0.4 % March
October 101 -0.2 % 0.1 % April
November 100.7 -0.3 % -0.4 % May
December 100.3 -0.4 % -1 % June
2017
January 100 -0.3 % -1.4 % July
February 100 0 % -1.5 % August
March 100.1 0.1 % -1.3 % Sept.
April 100 -0.1 % -1.3 % Oct.
May 99.8 -0.2 % -1.5 % Nov.
June 99.5 -0.3 % -1.7 % Dec.
The July Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on August
18, 2017.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi(at)analytica.is
This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via GlobeNewswire
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