Investment Outlook: Anatomy of the recovery
(Thomson Reuters ONE) - Much of the world economy has caught its breath. We are in the midstof a much-needed recovery phase, after a number of "green shoots"began appearing in the economy as early as last spring. Corporateearnings reports have largely provided positive surprises - thoughdue to cost-cutting - and for the past several months, purchasingmanagers in the manufacturing sector have been reporting clearimprovements in order bookings. Risk appetite has increased, and suchasset classes as private equity have benefited from the new climate.But in part, these changes have been artificially fuelled by massivegovernment bail-out and stimulus packages. So one critical questionis: When and how will these economic vitamin injections cease?Aside from economic policy programmes, there appear to be underlyingforces that in the long term will sustain positive economic growth.Looking back at history, it is possible to draw encouraging parallelswith the structure and dynamic of previous recoveries. But no twocrises are identical. For example, higher inflation expectationscould distort the current recovery scenario. In other words, thereare many indications that 2010 will be an interesting year, andprobably full of surprises.In focus in this December 2009 issue of Investment Outlook:"A continued cyclical upswing this winter and spring will provide afavourable financial investment environment for another while. Afterthat, be prepared for somewhat choppier markets as acceleratinggrowth levels off, due to the launch of exit policies and the fadingpositive impact of the inventory cycle," says Hans Peterson, GlobalHead of Investment Strategy."The dollar is affected by both risk appetite and global liquidityflows. A weak dollar should benefit the global recovery and Americanexporters can take advantage of the situation," Mr Petersoncontinues."Long-term global imbalance between commodity supply and demand willbenefit this asset class. In some cases, commodity shares may be abetter form of exposure than futures," he concludes.Investment Strategy's current asset management strategy is based onthe prospect of a gradual improvement in macroeconomic conditions aswell as a normalisation of the corporate bond market. Due to thewithdrawal of the unprecedented stimulus measures initiated bygovernments and central banks, there is a risk that the currentacceleration in the world economy will be followed by more or lesslevel growth, starting in the latter part of 2010.The Investment Outlook report is published by Investment Strategy andappears four times per year. It is intended for the customers of SEBPrivate Banking. The report provides an idea of how Private Bankingturns global economic conditions into actual investmentopportunities.SEB is a Northern European financial group serving some 400,000corporate customers and institutions and five million privateindividuals. SEB offers universal banking services in Sweden, Germanyand the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Italso has a local presence in the other Nordic countries, Ukraine andRussia and a global presence through its international network inleading financial centres. On September 30, 2009, the Group's totalassets amounted to SEK 2,233 billion and its assets under managementtotalled SEK 1,295 billion. The SEB Group has about 20,000 employees.Read more about SEB at www.sebgroup.com._____________________________________________For further information, please contact:Hans Peterson, CIO Private Banking and global head InvestmentStrategy, +46 70-763 6921Lars Gunnar Aspman, Senior analyst, Investment Strategy, +46 70-60398 18Elisabeth Lennhede, Press & PR, 070-763 99 16,elisabeth.lennhede(at)seb.sehttp://hugin.info/1208/R/1359751/331513.pdfThis announcement was originally distributed by Hugin. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
Datum: 08.12.2009 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
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