Global transmission demand differs according to customers and market requirements
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Global transmission demand differs according to customers and market
requirements
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Results of a TED survey at the 9(th) International CTI Symposium "Innovative
automotive transmissions, hybrid and electrical drives" (30.11 to 1.12.2010,
Berlin)
http://www.getriebe-symposium.de
Düsseldorf/Berlin, December 2010. The upbeat mood in the automotive industry was
also reflected in the response to this year's 9(th) International CTI Symposium
"Innovative automotive transmissions, hybrid and electric drives" (30 November
and 1 December 2010). For two days over 900 transmission experts discussed the
challenges of modern drive technologies in view of differing customer
requirements in the global markets and CO(2) reduction targets. In the
accompanying specialist exhibition "Transmission Expo" around 80 companies
presented their latest products related to transmission systems and drive
trains.
Despite the prevailing hype about electric cars, most of the participants
remained convinced of the importance of conventional drives. Over half of those
questioned in the plenary session as part of the TED survey assumed that in the
coming 20 years a combustion engine would be present in over 75 percent of all
drives. In view of this result, Dr Manfred Klüting (BMW AG) noted that while
electrification was gaining steadily in importance and would be on the table for
mega-cities, in the coming twenty years conventional drives would remain
dominant. Dr Tim Leverton (Tata Motors Ltd) recalled that in emerging countries
like India power supply could not be guaranteed across the board and electric
mobility was only possible in mega-cities. Cost factors likewise favoured
conventional drives. According to Leverton, diesel engines would remain the most
efficient applications for emerging countries for the foreseeable future. In
keeping with this, Kazutoshi Noma (Jatco Ltd.) stated that petrol and diesel
engines would continue to be the dominant drives on the Japanese market too.
Sebastian Feldmann (PRTM Management Consulting) added that the costs for
electric engines could only be specified in 2017 and would only then be
comparable to those of combustion engines.
The future of manual transmission
Views differed much more widely in the transmission symposium's plenary when it
came to the issue of the proportion of vehicles with manual transmission in
twenty years. While 38 percent of those surveyed estimated the share at 35 to
50 percent, 24 percent forecast a manual transmission share of between 20 and
35 percent. A further 26.5 percent of the participants expected manual
transmissions to have a share of between 50 and 70 percent in 20 years.
According to Ulrich Plewnia (GiF Research Center China Co. Ltd) and Leverton,
the continued importance of manual transmission is largely due to emerging
countries. There the role played by costs is decisive. However, due to the
efficiency advantages in the case of automatic transmissions, overall
development would head in this direction. Leverton argued hybridisation would be
crucial in the second development phase in emerging countries. By contrast,
since hybridisation is incompatible with a gear shift lever, Klüting noted,
automatic transmissions would gain ground. Feldmann remarked on the TED result
that in future there would be many different drives, since drive demand in the
varying markets would continue to be differentiated in the years to come. The
trend towards smaller vehicles has to be taken into consideration here, along
with cost factors and the respective infrastructure in the individual countries
and their level of development, Klüting observed.
Conventional drives will continue to generate turnover
The participants' answer to the question regarding what percentage of turnover
could still be generated in future with current transmissions also highlighted
the ongoing importance of conventional drives. About a third estimated turnover
with current technologies at 50 to 70 percent. Over 25 percent even reckoned
with a turnover proportion of current transmission technologies of 75 to 100
percent. Klüting noted that one has to distinguish between turnover developments
between Europe and the USA on the one hand and the new markets on the other. On
the European and American markets reductions in consumption and CO(2) involve a
trend towards multi-gear automatic transmission. In China by contrast demand for
simple transmissions is very high. However, if China also adopted a policy of
electric mobility, it could be a driver here and alter the worldwide
transmission demand.
Transmission manufacturers react to electrification
The extent to which transmission manufacturers were already reacting to the
trend towards electrification emerged from the fact that almost 80 percent of
the participants stated that they were investigating the subject. Development of
e-drive products had begun among 56.4 percent. In future, 21.5 percent would
switch their concentration from mechanical components to electronic components.
China or Japan will profit most from e-mobility
Almost 40 percent of those surveyed predicted that electric mobility would
prevail first in China. By contrast, over a quarter of participants considered
Japan had the best electric mobility prospects. A similar picture emerged in
response to the question of which country would profit most from electric
mobility. Here 36.1 percent described Japan as the winner in electric mobility,
while 32.8 percent came down in favour of China.
Plewnia was critical of the positive Chinese forecast. He admitted that it is
easier in China than in many other countries to get things done, but claimed the
infrastructure and comprehensive power supply are still poor. Consequently,
electric mobility in China faces fundamental challenges. He expected that
initially smaller countries would rather make the running in this area, but
China could profit from electric mobility in terms of raw materials. Since many
of the rare earths required only occur in China and battery production is far
advanced there, China could profit greatly from electric mobility in this area.
Since 20 percent of the participants saw Germany as the winner in electric
mobility, Klüting called to mind the great efforts by politicians and companies
to promote electric mobility. But in the end the customer would decide how fast
the electric car would become established on the market. Leverton remarked that
perhaps not individual countries, but rather mega-cities like London or Tokyo
would be the first to establish electric mobility.
Information and picture material on the Internet at:
http://www.getriebe-symposium.de
www.konferenz.de/fotos-drivetrains2010
Contact:
Dr Nadja Thomas
Senior Press Officer
Car Training Institute - Business Division of Informa Deutschland SE
Prinzenallee 3
40549 Düsseldorf
E-mail:nadja.thomas(at)car-training-institute.com
Internet:www.car-training-institute.com and www.getriebe-symposium.de
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Datum: 06.12.2010 - 19:15 Uhr
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News-ID 49447
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