SEB: Investment Outlook: Hopeful start to the investor year, but surprises may appear
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
Since late 2011 and early 2012, investors have ventured out into the financial
markets again. Activity has increased and a certain calm is discernible in
capital markets. Most forecasts indicate decent growth. Worries about global
recession have receded and central bank actions have reduced the stress in the
financial system. But concerns about the European debt crisis remain.
Put simply, markets need three things in order to move: liquidity, an economic
trend and reasonable valuations. In recent months, all these factors have acted
in a favorable way, creating a certain optimism and influencing risk appetite in
the right direction. Hans Peterson, Global Head of Investment Strategy at SEB
Private Banking, believes there will be a stabilisation this year but warns
about the delicate balancing act that a number of European countries must
manage.
"This winter has offered many unexpectedly positive macroeconomic signals, so
there is good potential for a gradual strengthening of the economy during 2012.
But there are difficult issues that many countries are grappling with right now.
For example, how much should countries with budget deficits tighten their fiscal
policy - in light of very weak economies and widespread social unrest, on the
one hand, and the demands being made by lenders, on the other hand," Mr Peterson
continues.
In spite of everything, 2012 has the potential to be a good investor year and
the second half is expected to be better than the first, according to Mr
Peterson.
"Risk assets behave differently in given economic scenarios. In a positive
scenario, equities generally provide higher returns, with a special advantage
for cyclical companies and perhaps banks. Also benefiting from a better scenario
are commodities - especially industrial metals like copper - commodity-related
currencies as well as high yield and other corporate bonds. In a more negative
scenario, however, we should not be too heavily invested in equities or in high
yield bonds."
"The current economic picture for 2012 in the OECD countries now appears
balanced, but there are several factors capable of invalidating that picture:
economic surprises generated by inner forces, the unfolding of the European
sovereign debt crisis, a return of the inflation or deflation spectre, monetary
and fiscal policy management and geopolitical events. Right now a majority of
forecasters apparently see the greatest potential for upside surprises in the
American economy and the greatest potential for downside surprises in the
European sovereign debt crisis," says Lars Gunnar Aspman, Senior Economist at
Investment Strategy.
Investment Outlook gives readers an in-depth look at the investment climate and
prospects for seven asset classes and provides them with suggestions and advice
about current risks and opportunities in the art of investing. It also presents
a country allocation model that shows which regions should be able to provide
the best returns. The report can be read in its entirety at
http://newsroom.sebgroup.com/en/
+------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
|For further information, please |Press contact |
|contact |Claes Eliasson, Press & PR |
|Hans Peterson, Global Head of |+46 76 396 53 19 |
|Investment Strategy, SEB Private |claes.eliasson(at)seb.se |
|banking, tel: +46 8 763 69 21 | |
|Lars-Gunnar Aspman, Senior Economist| |
|Investment Strategy, | |
|tel: + 46 8 763 69 75 | |
+------------------------------------+-----------------------------------------+
|SEB is a leading Nordic financial services group. As a relationship bank, SEB |
|in Sweden and the Baltic countries offers financial advice and a wide range of|
|financial services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway and Germany the bank's |
|operations have a strong focus on corporate and investment banking based on a |
|full-service offering to corporate and institutional clients. The |
|international nature of SEB's business is reflected in its presence in some |
|20 countries worldwide. On December 31, 2011, the Group's total assets |
|amounted to SEK 2,363 billion while its assets under management totalled |
|SEK 1,261 billion. The Group has about 17,000 employees. Read more about SEB |
|at www.sebgroup.com. |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Investment Outlook:
http://hugin.info/1208/R/1587763/498088.pdf
Press Release (PDF):
http://hugin.info/1208/R/1587763/498087.pdf
This announcement is distributed by Thomson Reuters on behalf of
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(i) the releases contained herein are protected by copyright and
other applicable laws; and
(ii) they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and
originality of the information contained therein.
Source: SEB via Thomson Reuters ONE
[HUG#1587763]
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 21.02.2012 - 10:01 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 116532
Anzahl Zeichen: 5888
contact information:
Town:
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Kategorie:
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