Are Shares Of This Company Really Set To Triple?
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
The Maxim Group recently initiated coverage on shares of Aastrom Biosciences
with a Buy Rating and a 12-month price target of $6.
Shares of the company had been falling along with the rest of the markets, but
now that Aastrom is enrolling patients in a pivotal Phase III trial for critical
limb ischemia (CLI) analysts at the firm feel that shares should head back up
based on a high probability of success given the prior data sets and powering of
the current program.
In a note to clients, Maxim's analysts point out that critical limb ischemia is
a severe obstruction of the arteries that decreases blood flow to the
extremities (feet, legs, and, less frequently, hands), progressing to the point
of severe pain, skin ulcers, and sores. The Sage Group, a research group,
estimates that there are more than 1 million CLI patients in the United States,
with an incidence that is growing with an aging population. Of these patients,
up to 40% are categorized as "no-option patients", ineligible for further
revascularization. CLI is an unmet medical need today.
The sense here is that at $30,000 per procedure the therapy could create
significant economic value for both Aastrom and patients, especially if it means
that those patients would be avoiding amputation.
More than 60% of nontraumatic lower-limb amputations occur in people with
diabetes. Statistics as of 2006 show that about 65,700 nontraumatic lower-limb
amputations were performed in people with diabetes. $58 billion was spent for
indirect costs (disability, work loss, premature mortality, etc.)
The pivotal Phase III trial will see approximately 600 patients and will be 90%
powered to show a benefit of ixmyelocel-T over the placebo. In the firm's
previous Phase IIb RESTORE trial, ixmyelocel-T showed a 61% risk reduction vs.
the control group. Aastrom has assumed an event rate of 34.5% in the control
group, expecting that ixmyelocel will separate down to 22.2%, according to the
initiation report.
We conducted a video interview with Tim Mayleben, CEO of Aastrom Biosciences.
During the chat, Mayleben broke down some of the details about the impressive
$40 million private placement with Eastern Capital Limited, but despite this
bullish bet, investors seemed to have lost sight of the strong proposition and
upside potential presented by ASTM.
Shares have been up +9.34% since January 1, but are down -39.14% since last
year.
Perhaps some overhang in the stock could be to blame for the marked downward
trend in shares. "Aastrom also has access to an at-the-market (ATM) financing
vehicle, which is currently active for up to $20 million in aggregate
offerings," according to Maxim. "Management may utilize the facility to preserve
capital at opportune times in the marketplace. With that said, we believe
management would prefer to raise capital with solid fundamental investors, and
we do expect at least one more significant capital raise before we see pivotal
trial results."
Analysts point out that biotechnology companies like Aastrom generally see a
rise in valuation as they enter pivotal stages of development. Especially when
the indications represent both an unmet medical need in a large patient
population. The very same parameters fit a number of companies who are in late-
stage clinical trials. Some, like lowly valued Cel-Sci (AMEX:CVM) have seen
shares waking up as Phase III trials have finally kicked off. The stock is up
+36.25% since January, but it has definitely helped that leaks from some doctors
involved in the studies report promising (none-the-less anecdotal) results. It
also doesn't hurt that despite arguments about the business management of the
firm and how long it has taken them to finally get here, repsected publications
like Kiplinger and Fierce Biotech have looked beyond and started to take notice;
listing Cel-Sci's Multikine cancer drug candidate among the most promising right
along side CPI-613, from privately held Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals and
cabozantinib, from Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL).
Over the long term, making money in any biotech or drug stock is about products,
but as others have pointed out, there are a number of biotech stocks who have
yet to sell a single dose but have returned tremendous gains for speculators.
Inhibitex (NASDAQ:INHX), Amarin (NASDAQ:AMRN) and Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC)
among them.
Long term, this appears to be a big winner, but be conservative and cautious
with your bets and let the chart tell you when to join the party.
The full report on this firm, including charts is now available at
BioMedReports:
http://www.biomedreports.com/2012060495881/will-shares-of-astm-provide-a-triple-
from-todays-levels.html
Healthcare investors and Biotech traders interested in accessing BioMedReports'
new complete database of clinical trials and upcoming FDA and world-wide
regulatory decisions which can be used to make more profitable trades and see
upcoming catalysts can go to:
http://biomedreports.com/fdacal.html
News developments and live healthcare sector updates are available constantly
via twitter at: http://twitter.com/BioMedReports
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Source: BioMedReports via Thomson Reuters ONE
[HUG#1617543]
Datum: 05.06.2012 - 20:47 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
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