DGAP-News: Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG, Merchant&Investment Banking: Analyst Jacques Abramowicz: LONG TERM EVOLUTION PRIMER - THE NEXT GENERATION IN MOBILE BROADBAND
(firmenpresse) - Silvia Quandt&Cie. AG, Merchant&Investment Banking / Research Update
01.07.2010 15:23
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Analyst Jacques Abramowicz: LONG TERM EVOLUTION PRIMER - THE NEXT
GENERATION IN MOBILE BROADBAND
Coverage: Adva Optical (Buy: EUR4.80), Alcatel-Lucent (Avoid: EUR1.95),
Deutsche Telekom (Buy: EUR12.50), Ericsson (Buy: SEK 98), Nokia (Neutral:
EUR8)
According to Cisco, Ericsson and others, mobile data will grow by over 100%
p.a. for at least the next four years.
We believe that we are approaching an Elliott-wave cycle for infrastructure
investments although, as the networks become more efficient, this will
stabilise whereas mobile data will continue to grow.
Each mobile phone being replaced by a smartphone will cause at least a
ten-fold increase in mobile data usage.
We believe that operators can benefit from this by maintaining an excellent
infrastructure.
This is not only a necessity to keep existing customers (who will otherwise
move to competitors i.e. see the problems at AT&T) but also to eventually
earn a return on investments made. Here we see Deutsche Telekom as being
well positioned Investment in LTE make sense for Operators as the
investments are incremental and LTE is more efficient than UMTS. Being an
all-IP network, LTE can load-balance itself and re-route to avoid
congestion. Voice traffic will happen as VoIP on LTE and cloudcomputing
will become the big earner in the future. Again, Deutsche Telekom is
positioning itself here as well as Ericsson on the equipment side.
This leads us to conclude that LTE will be used for Data in the first few
years with data-modems/-sticks being the first terminal devices. This does
not bode too well for Nokia.
Finally, all the data will have to re-enter the ground both to connect to
the internet and also to avoid congestion in cities. Here we see Adva
Optical as the big winner.
01.07.2010 15:23 Ad hoc announcement, Financial News and Media Release distributed by DGAP. Medienarchiv atwww.dgap-medientreff.deandwww.dgap.de---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Datum: 01.07.2010 - 15:23 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 23336
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