DGAP-News: Center for Financial Studies (CFS) at the Goethe University Frankfurt: CFS Financial Center Index continues to rise
(firmenpresse) - DGAP-News: Center for Financial Studies (CFS) at the Goethe University
Frankfurt / Key word(s): Miscellaneous
Center for Financial Studies (CFS) at the Goethe University Frankfurt:
CFS Financial Center Index continues to rise
01.02.2011 / 12:00
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CFS Financial Center Index continues to rise
Financial institutions to hire and invest more / Euro crisis expected to
intensify
1. Index Development
FRANKFURT, 1 February. The CFS Financial Center Index shows that financial
institutions are in the market to hire new staff. Rising by another 2.9
points compared to the last quarter the index has reached a value of 115.8
points. Again both subindices (performance of the last quarter and
projection of the next quarter) have increased across all areas of value
creation (revenue, profits, employment, investments), indicating a further
improvement of the business climate.
The various groups of participants in the survey (financial institutions
and brokerage, financial sector service providers, supervisory and academic
institutions, connected enterprises) demonstrate slightly different trends.
The financial institutions including banks have seen a substantial rise in
employment and investments (+ 7.5 and 6.1 points, respectively). Not only
did they surpass their last quarter's survey expectations considerably, for
the first time since October 2008 their employment subindex passed the
threshold of 100 points. This indicates a net increase of employment.
'Banks start to catch up with the rest of the financial sector. For the
first time since the collapse of Lehman the financial sector's nucleus
creates jobs,' explains CFS Director Professor Dr. Jan Pieter Krahnen.
The providers of financial sector services have not performed as strongly
as expected and missed their expectations slightly (- 2.6 points). After
showing very strong numbers the first three quarters of 2010 the service
providing sector of accountancy firms, consultancies and law firms have,
however, stabilized on a very high level at 120.1 points and continue with
strong expectations for 2011 since the projection for the first quarter is
at 122.7 points.
The overall positive trend of the figures also translates into the
intention of most firms to invest in new business or to expand existing
branches.
2. Special survey: Euro crisis
The majority of the financial sector (80%) expects the Euro crisis to
continue or even deepen further in 2011. A mere 15% believe that the
situation will improve this year. With respect to possible measures to
resolve the Euro crisis, the survey panel was confronted with 3 questions
covering (1) the issuance of Eurobonds, (2) a haircut on bonds of
struggling EU Member States and (3) a European harmonization of national
economic policies. For each measure the panelists were asked to give both
their expectation and their personal preference (see Figure 2).
Eurobonds face opposition, Haircut earns approval
Contrary to public comments the majority of the panel expects that a common
bond will be issued by the euro zone in 2011. Four out of five, however,
oppose the issuance of Eurobonds. Almost 70% of the panelists are in favor
of a haircut on bonds of EU Member States that are struggling with heavy
budgetary deficit. Proponents of this measure are to be found especially
among the service providers (75%), and to a lesser extent among the banks
(55%). Roughly 80% of those that expect a haircut, envisage that it will be
enforced within the next three years, mainly in 2012 and 2013. Most of the
financial service sector providers would welcome a haircut already in 2011.
European coordination of national tax and budgetary policies
The majority of the respondents - especially those that welcome the
issuance of Eurobonds - regards it as necessary for the EU Member States to
harmonize their national tax and budgetary policies: 'A greater
coordination of national policies on the European level seems to be a
pivotal requirement for the issuance of Eurobonds', says Krahnen. The
financial sector is, however, not very optimistic about the chances for
such a coordination effort; only few expect successful action in this field
in 2011.
Many respondents agree on what should happen to countries that do not
fulfill the criteria of the growth and stability pact. 70% of the panel
believe that, in these cases, sanctions should apply automatically and
without exceptions.
The stabilizing measures to fight the Euro crisis could also have an effect
on the ECB: Every second panelist sees the independence of the ECB at
stake.
www.financialcenterindex.com - for graphs and further information.
For any questions, please contact:
Florian Hense Tel.: +49 69 798-30090
Center for Financial Studies Fax: +49 69 798-30077
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt E-Mail: hense(at)ifk-cfs.de
House of Finance www.finanzplatzindex.de
Grüneburgplatz 1, HPF H5 www.financialcenterindex.com
60323 Frankfurt am Main
Josef Schießl Tel.: +49 69 94 41 80 26
Frankfurt Main Finance e.V. Fax: +49 69 94 41 80 19
c/o NewMark Finanzkommunikation E-Mail: josef.schiessl(at)frankfurt-
Main Triangel main-finance.com
Zum Laurenburger Hof 76 www.frankfurt-main-finance.com
60594 Frankfurt
End of Corporate News
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110706 01.02.2011
Datum: 01.02.2011 - 12:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 33109
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