Market commentary Bellevue Asset Management: "We are confident about stocks, but the possibility of a growth shock cannot be ruled out"
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Bellevue Asset Management /
Market commentary Bellevue Asset Management: "We are confident about stocks, but
the possibility of a growth shock cannot be ruled out"
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The experts at Bellevue are forecasting a continuation of monetary policies
aimed at stimulating economic activity, therefore providing an ideal environment
for stocks and non-sovereign bonds. That said, there is still some risk of a
substantial disruption, including a possible growth shock should the Chinese
Renminbi be devalued.
Conditions on the world's equity markets have settled down after the turbulent
start to the new year and Lucio Soso, Lead Portfolio Manager of BB Global Macro
Fund (ISIN B-EUR LU0494761835) of Bellevue Asset Management, does not expect to
pick up volatility again. The BB Global Macro team has drawn up a central case
scenario with a 50% probability of occurrence projecting slow growth in the
global economy and a continuation of the extremely accommodative monetary
policies by central banks. "When we have these kinds of conditions, equities and
corporate bonds perform the best," Soso says.
Bellevue's somewhat negative scenario is less likely (probability of occurrence:
25%). In this scenario, the credit bubble in some emerging markets would
continue to affect global financial markets. Although the Bellevue experts
predict that these credit crises will remain local in scope, the situation
nevertheless represents a threat for high-risk investments. If the credit crises
lead to declines in bond prices, the fund managers of BB Global Macro plan to
buy bonds from emerging markets (such as Brazil) to take advantage of this
scenario.
The negative scenario is even grimmer, but with the same probable likelihood
(25%). If it becomes reality, there would be a growth shock that could send
equity markets into a bear market. One possible cause of an economic slowdown
could be a devaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Under such a scenario, Chinese
demand for foreign goods would suddenly drop while global companies would be
confronted with heightened competition from Chinese products. China's total
level of debt has increased sharply since 2007. A credit crisis would increase
the pressure for a devaluation even further. "We continue to be concerned about
a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy and a subsequent devaluation of the
Renminbi," Soso says. The Chinese currency was sold short in March as a hedge to
the equity strategy.
Apart from that, the Global Macro absolute return fund is primarily invested in
the Eurozone and Japanese stocks. Soso: "Valuations are attractive by historical
standards, and the quantitative easing programs are still in place in the
Eurozone and Japan." There was virtually no change in the positions held by
Global Macro in April. The only portfolio activity was some profit taking in
Italian government bonds.
For further information:
Bellevue Asset Management AG, Seestrasse 16 / P.O. Box, CH-8700 Kusnacht/Zurich
Tanja Chicherio, Tel. +41 (44) 267 67 07, tch(at)bellevue.ch
www.bellevue.ch
Bellevue Asset Management
Bellevue Asset Management is an independent and highly specialized asset
management boutique focused on managing equity funds for selective sector and
regional strategies, in particular for African equities, Swiss/European
entrepreneurial equities and healthcare equities, and multi asset strategies.
Disclaimer: This document is neither directed to, nor intended for distribution
or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in
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publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The
information and data presented in this document are not to be considered as an
offer or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to any securities or financial
instruments. The information, opinions and estimates contained in this document
reflect a judgment at the original date of release and are subject to change
without notice. No liability is assumed for its correctness and accuracy. This
information pays no regard to the specific or future investment objectives,
financial or tax situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. This
document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of
independent judgment. Before making any investment decision, investors are
recommended to ascertain if this investment is suitable for them in the light of
their financial knowledge and experience, investment goals and financial
situation, or to obtain specific advice from an industry professional. The
details and opinions contained in this document are provided without any
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currency fluctuations. Past performance is no indicator for the current or
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financial instruments. Financial transactions should only be undertaken after
having carefully studied the current valid prospectus and are only valid on the
basis of the latest version of the prospectus and available annual and semi-
annual reports. The Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is admitted for public offering
and distribution in Switzerland. Representative agent in Switzerland: Acolin
Fund Services AG, Stadelhoferstrasse 18, CH-8001 Zürich and paying agent in
Switzerland: Bank am Bellevue AG, Seestrasse 16, P.O. Box, CH-8700 Kusnacht. The
Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is admitted for public distribution in Austria.
Paying and information agent: Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG,
Graben 21, A-1010 Vienna. The Bellevue Funds (Lux) SICAV is admitted for public
distribution in Germany. Paying and information agent: Bank Julius Bär Europe
AG, An der Welle 1, P.O. Box, D-60062 Frankfurt a. M. The Bellevue Funds (Lux)
SICAV is registered with the CNMV under the number 938. Prospectus, simplified
prospectus, the articles of association as well as the annual and semi-annual
reports of the BB Funds under Luxembourg law are available free of charge from
the above mentioned representative, paying and information agents as well as
from Bellevue Asset Management AG, Seestrasse 16, CH-8700 Kusnacht.
Market commentary:
http://hugin.info/142988/R/2015276/747191.pdf
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(i) the releases contained herein are protected by copyright and
other applicable laws; and
(ii) they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and
originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Bellevue Asset Management via GlobeNewswire
[HUG#2015276]
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 25.05.2016 - 10:33 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 473445
Anzahl Zeichen: 8170
contact information:
Town:
Kusnacht/Zurich
Kategorie:
Business News
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