Baltic Rim Outlook: growth is back
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
After some tough years for the Baltics, Poland and Russia the crisis is now
over, at least in terms of growth, which is back. Estonia's nearby membership of
the euro club highlights that a new era has begun for the Baltic countries.
Exports have been the key element in the early part of the recoveries in the
region, while the development of the domestic economies varies significantly.
Poland is clearly in the lead, with Russia gaining pace and the Baltics still
struggling to get domestic demand to pick up.
In Estonia exports have been the main driver of the recovery. Although the
labour markets have started to improve, consumption is still fragile. The euro
adoption is expected to boost confidence in the economy both at home and abroad,
strengthening the recovery. Whereas public finances are at sustainable levels,
the economy has other challenges to overcome, such as accelerating inflation and
high long-term unemployment.
In Latvia focus is on fiscal consolidation. The budget deficit should be cut
below 6% of GDP in 2011 - a challenge from 10.2% in 2009. However, a gradual
recovery is clearly seen in the economy, although the domestic economy is
showing little sign of an upturn. The outcome of the recent elections was good
news for the markets, but credibility needs to be upheld to ensure favourable
conditions on the local financial markets.
Lithuanian GDP still has a long way up to pre-crisis levels, and for this also a
recovery in domestic demand is needed. Although growth this year is seen
lacklustre, acceleration is expected in 2011. However, a slowdown in export
demand could keep the economy weak for a longer time. Budget cuts will also be
needed, with preferably some structural reforms implemented. Stable government
finances are necessary for sustainable growth.
Growth in Russia is seen slowing in the second half of the year, indicating that
growth for 2010 as a whole will undershoot previous forecasts. Especially the
agricultural sector has stagnated due to the summer drought. Although inflation
has accelerated, we do not foresee double-digit figures over our forecasting
horizon. The budget deficit will remain fairly large despite for example rising
oil prices and privatisation plans.
The Polish economy continues to pick up speed and almost all engines are now up
and running again after the global crisis. However, we expect the economy to
start losing momentum late this year and in the first half of next year. Fiscal
policy is our key domestic concern at the moment, especially since general
elections are due next year. A lot of focus is currently on the central bank, as
the first interest rate hike is near.
Download the report.
For further information:
Chief Analyst Anders Svendsen (Poland) +45 3333 3951
Analyst Annika Lindblad (the Baltics) +358 9 1655 9940
Analyst Aurelija Augulyté (Russia) +45 3333 6437
[HUG#1457326]
Press release (PDF):
http://hugin.info/1151/R/1457326/397035.pdf
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Source: Nordea via Thomson Reuters ONE
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Datum: 01.11.2010 - 12:01 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 48261
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