Midas Letter Report - Drill Intercepts Make Gold Shares Go Up
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
Vancouver, British Columbia, December 11, 2010 - Midas Letter Report - Drill
Intercepts Make Gold Shares Go Up - There is a basic fact of mining investment
that many investors fail to embrace, and geologists loathe. And the fact is that
good drill results make shares go up, regardless of the context of geology. An
excellent case-in-point is Seafield Resources (TSX.V:SFF), which last week
announced a drill interception of 449 meters grading 1.29 grams per tonne gold
including a 23.95 metre segment grading 9.18 grams per tonne gold. The shares
closed the day at $0.23, and opened the next morning at $0.35, touched a high of
$0.77, before settling at the end of the day at $0.55. The stock traded 70
million shares, which amounted to 29% of the day's volume on the TSX Venture
Exchange.
Seafield has (or had, rather) 47.9 million warrants and options, all of which
were issued between $0.10 and $0.25, which would go a long way towards
explaining why 70 million shares traded only took the stock into the $0.60
range. The stupendous volume and stellar intercept immediately drew critics,
primarily geologists, who warned that the deposit had limited geological merit,
and that the drill hole was essentially anomalous.
Now as widely regarded geologist Brent Cook of Exploration Insights correctly
asserts in his piece, "Beware of Geologists", geology is "as much an art as a
science."
He goes on to caution: "As most of what is of interest to explorationists is
hidden under dirt, rocks and water, they're usually dealing with only a small
sampling of the data required to "know" what really lies below the surface.
Interpreting this limited, and often contradictory, data then becomes an
exercise in "seeing the unknown" through the crystal ball of one's own
experience. In other words, making an educated, or as is all too often the
case, an uneducated guess."
Which demonstrates succinctly one of the catalysts of the herd instinct, a
critical component of human nature, itself arguably more important than geology
when it comes to successful investing. If a result is perceived to be good, then
the enthusiasm generated by that result will manifest itself in the desire to
own that result. So it doesn't matter if the Miraflores deposit, that is the
subject of Seafield's stupendous drill hole press release, is characterized by
the fact that "Drilling, mapping, and underground sampling have essentially
defined the limits of the body at about 250 meters by 280 meters."
According to Cook's own statements, this is either an educated or uneducated
guess. In either case, nobody cares. As investors, our goal is to make money
from our investments. That's it. Nothing more. So if the share price goes up to
$0.77, and I can sell what I bought at $0.35 for, let's cut it off at $0.70,
then I've just about doubled my money, minus fees and/or commissions.
Beware of geologists indeed, for they are in the business of being right,
whereas we investors are simply in the business of making money.
Now that being said, I would caution investors that you also need to Beware of
Promoters.
A promoter can be described as anyone who has a vested interest in the company
he promotes, which is nothing more than trying to attract investors to a
company¹s shares by making "forward looking" and generally very positive
statements about the prospects of a company.
Promoters can also be "negative promoters", or "bashers" as they are more
commonly known, who are typically investors who have gone "short" against a
stock, borrowing shares a current price on the assumption that, because a
company's share price is going to go down, he'll be able to buy the borrowed
shares at a lower price and make the spread in between. When you hear a voice
that is describing a company in negative terms, you have to bear in mind that
the source of information might just have an interest in making sure the shares
go down in price, as opposed to up.
When a stock trades as liquidly as did Seafield's shares last week, traders, who
are happy to make a few cents on large volumes traded, and shorts, who need
liquidity both to be able to borrow shares, as well as generate downward
momentum in the share price, are attracted like fruit flies to lemonade.
These are just a few of the booby traps that can cause a share price to
boomerang around in an apparently senseless pattern, and snare bewildered
investors like deer in headlights, invoking irrational and emotional buy and
sell decisions that cause losses.
In Seafield's case, there is some cause for concern in that the company wasted
no time in announcing first a 20 million share, then upgrading it to a 30
million share private placement at $0.50 just as soon as they could.
To me, this indicates the company has little faith in the remaining 9 holes that
it has to release from this drill program, and therefore scrambles to raise
money before the bloom is off the rose, as it were, from what just might be the
best drill hole that the Miraflores deposit is capable of producing.
Furthermore, the announcement of a 30 million share private placement at $0.50
gives investors who paid more quite an incentive to sell their shares, as that
$0.50 often defines the cap of a share price after such a financing.
But that has not happened at this point. Friday, the shares closed up $0.04 on
the day at $0.68. That indicates there is a great belief in more to come.
And let's keep in mind, the Miraflores deposit is far from the only flower in
the Qunchia garden.
The company announced a trench result that assayed 1.75 grams per tonne over 94
metres at the Dosquebrados prospect 3 kilometers from Miraflores. Geologists
have yet to weigh in publicly on the quality of that deposit, though it is
common for the critics to grow silent as discoveries gain momentum, and hang
together from a macro-geological viewpoint.
According to the press release last week:
"Following completion of the drill program at the Miraflores gold-bearing
breccia body, the diamond drill has now been moved about three kilometres to the
northwest, to the Dosquebradas area to extend the gold mineralized porphyry
discovered in 2006."
The gold-in-soil anomaly which defines the northern extension of the
Dosquebradas porphyry on Seafield's property has an area of about 700 metres by
550 metres as defined by soil samples above 50 ppb Au (0.05 g/t Au).
Other Great Companies on the Move
The Midas Letter portfolio is full of companies that are moving steadily upward
in share price on strong drill results.
Gold Canyon Resources, (TSX.V:GCU) featured in the November Midas Letter premium
version at $1.19, and currently trades in the $2.20 - $2.40 range. It was the
announcement of a 223 metre intercept grading 1.45 gram per tonne, which came
close on the heels of another great intercept of 307 metres grading 1.44 grams
per tonne gold at the company's Spingpole Gold Project in the prolific Red Lake
district in Ontario, Canada.
Another great company powering forward on strong drill results is Evolving Gold
Corp. (TSX:EVG), first brought to the attention of Midas Letter subscribers in
2009 when the shares were trading in the $0.37 range. Evolving Gold announced an
absolutely astonishing drill intercept grading 1.31 grams per tonne gold over
405.4 meters at the company's Rattlesnake Hills project in Wyoming.
African Gold Group (TSX.V:AGG) saw its shares climb to new highs after
announcing a series of excellent drill intersections from its Koboda project in
Mali, West Africa, such as 125 metres grading 1.04 grams per tonne gold, and 64
metres grading 2.57 grams per tonne gold. Midas Letter Premium subscribers were
introduced to the company $0.61 in the Novemberi ssue, and currently the shares
are trading above $0.70.
And speaking of Africa, Canaco Resources (TSX.V:CAN), which was featured in the
Midas Letter on November 9th, 2009 at $0.37, closed the day on Friday at $5.97
on recent intercepts like 48.6 metres grading 14.81 grams per tonne gold, and
37 metres 12.45 grams per tonne gold.
None of these have become mines yet, and so, by the rules of Canada¹s National
Instrument 43-101, these cannot technically even be classified as economic
deposits. That means all these companies remain excellent opportunities for risk
tolerant investors, and demonstrates definitively that despite the absence of
geologic endorsement, good drill intercepts will always make share prices go up.
Midas Letter subscribers know this fact intimately.
James West is the publisher of the Midas Letter, which specializes in
identifying emerging companies in gold and silver exploration at the beginning
of their share price appreciation curves. For subscription information please
visitwww.midasletter.com.
Catch James West on BNN, Canada's National business network, on Thursday,
December 16 at 2:15 on Business Day, where he'll be talking about the growing
copper bubble, and mentioning a few of his favorite stocks.
CONTACT:
InvestmentPitch.com
Barry Morgan, CFO
604-684-5524
bmorgan(at)investmentpitch.com
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Source: InvestmentPitch via Thomson Reuters ONE
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Datum: 12.12.2010 - 01:38 Uhr
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