Iceland Leading Indicator - Imports and fish catches push higher
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, May 18, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite
Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose by 0.1 per cent in April. However, the
values for February and March were revised downwards. The CLI still indicates
growth above long term trend.
Three of the six components rise on the previous month with the largest impact
being due to the increase of the value of fish catches and the increase
merchandise imports. All components are adjusted for seasonality and long term
trend. The long-term trend of some important CLI components remains strong. The
main risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation
to the geopolitical situation.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For April, one of the six underlying components is
strengthening year on year. However, three of the six components rise on the
previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for April rises by 0.1 per cent to 100.4. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. October 2017. A
value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017
Change in % Indication
-----------------------
Index on month YOY for month
2016
April 101.4 -0.1 % 1.6 % Oct. 2016
May 101.3 -0.1 % 1.5 % Nov.
June 101.2 -0.1 % 1.2 % Dec.
July 101.2 0.0 % 0.9 % Jan. 2017
August 101.2 0.0 % 0.6 % Feb.
September 101.2 0.0 % 0.4 % March
October 101.0 -0.2 % 0.1 % April
November 100.7 -0.3 % -0.4 % May
December 100.3 -0.4 % -1.0 % June
2017
January 100.0 -0.3 % -1.5 % July
February 100.1 0.1 % -1.4 % August
March 100.3 0.2 % -1.1 % Sept.
April 100.4 0.1 % -1.0 % Oct.
The May Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on June 26, 2017.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi(at)analytica.is
This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via GlobeNewswire
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 18.05.2017 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 543464
Anzahl Zeichen: 3692
contact information:
Town:
Reykjavik
Kategorie:
Business News
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