Iceland Leading Indicator - A rise for the second month in row
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Oct. 18, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite
Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose in September for the second month in
row - this time by 0.6 per cent. The value for August was revised downwards
while earlier months were revised upwards. It is too early to tell whether the
current CLI rise indicates the renewal of faster growth instead of growth
normalization.
Three of the six components rise on the previous month. There is a rise in the
value of fish catches, merchandise imports and the MSCI World equities index.
The increasing value of fish catches constitutes the single largest factor
contributing to the CLI rise. The long-term trend of some important CLI
components remains strong. The main risk factors continue to include some
external factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation. A prolonged
government crisis following the elections on October 28 could produce a negative
impact.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For September, three of the six underlying components rise
year on year. Also, three of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for September rises to 100.1 or by 0.6 per cent. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. March 2018. A
value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017
Change in % Indication
-----------------------
Index on month YOY for month
2016
September 101.2 0.0 % 0.5 % March 2017
October 101.0 -0.2 % 0.3 % April
November 100.7 -0.3 % -0.2 % May
December 100.4 -0.3 % -0.7 % June
2017
January 100.1 -0.2 % -1.1 % July
February 100.2 0.1 % -1.1 % August
March 100.3 0.1 % -1.0 % Sept.
April 100.2 -0.1 % -1.1 % Oct.
May 99.9 -0.3 % -1.3 % Nov.
June 99.5 -0.4 % -1.7 % Dec.
July 99.3 -0.2 % -1.9 % Jan. 2018
August 99.5 0.3 % -1.6 % Feb.
September 100.1 0.6 % -1.0 % March
The October Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on November
17, 2017.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi(at)analytica.is
This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via GlobeNewswire
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 18.10.2017 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 564111
Anzahl Zeichen: 3976
contact information:
Town:
Reykjavik
Kategorie:
Business News
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