Baltic Rim Outlook: uneven recovery
(Thomson Reuters ONE) - The expected turnaround in the Baltic Rim economies is likely togradually improve the business opportunities for Nordic companiesoperating in the region. But with the deep recession in especiallythe Baltic countries in mind, the recovery will be uneven.The global economic outlook has improved sharply during the pastmonths as many economies around the world have emerged from therecession. Despite a rebound in export demand, the outlook for theBaltic countries remains weak.- We expect all the economies to gain some momentum in 2010 andreturn to positive growth in 2011, says Helge J. Pedersen, GlobalChief Economist in Nordea.In Estonia the economy is slowly finding foothold in some sectors,but weak domestic demand still remains an obstacle for a rebound. Arevival of the Nordic economies would, however, provide strongpossibilities of a revitalisation in export demand.Despite increasing export demand by Russia and the EU, the Latvianeconomy continued its steep decline throughout Q3, with the flashestimate indicating a GDP contraction of 18.4% y/y. Recently,devaluation speculations have re-emerged.The Lithuanian economy contracted sharply during the first threequarters of this year, leaving the country in the middle of a steeprecession, with contraction expected to continue into 2010. Thebudget deficit is expected to approach 10% this year and remainaround 9% in 2010.The Polish economy is expected to gradually recover and reach anormal state growth-wise in 2011. - Consumer spending has been a keyreason why the economy has steered clear of recession, but it showssigns of weakness. We expect an increase to remain at a very moderatepace well into 2010, says Senior Analyst Anders Svendsen, Nordea'sexpert on Poland.Russia was hit hard by the financial crisis as well as the fall incommodity prices, with GDP falling 10.9% in Q2. Strong oil prices andan improved export outlook point to a stabilisation of the economy.However, a sharp decline in investment during first half of 2009,combined with shrinking private consumption, indicates a slow andfragile recovery.For further information:Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist, +45 33 33 31 26Anders Svendsen, Senior Analyst, Poland, +45 33 33 39 51Annika Lindblad, Analyst, the Baltics and Russia, +358 9 165 59940http://hugin.info/1151/R/1355354/328943.pdfThis announcement was originally distributed by Hugin. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
Datum: 17.11.2009 - 09:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
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