Good prospects for plug-in hybrids, range extenders and a greater number of gears
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Good prospects for plug-in hybrids, range extenders and a greater number of
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TED results from the 10th International CTI Symposium
"Innovative Automotive Transmissions and Hybrid & Electric Drives"
(5 to 8 December 2011, Berlin)
www.getriebe-symposium.de/presse
Düsseldorf/Berlin, December 2011. Downsizing and the optimisation of
transmission technologies as an alternative to electric mobility were the themes
at this year's podium discussion during the 10th International CTI Symposium
"Innovative Automotive Transmissions and Hybrid & Electric Drives" (5 to 8
December 2011, Berlin). Ultimately, it is customers who will decide whether
electric cars are successful or not, commented Prof. Dr Ulrich Spicher
(Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, KIT). He believes that in terms of energy
consumption, electric mobility is not really a practical solution and does not
represent an alternative but rather a supplement to conventional drives.
Electric vehicles can achieve a ten per cent share of the global market by 2030
- this is the assessment of 44.1 per cent of those who participated in a TED
questionnaire carried out within the framework of the CTI Symposium. One quarter
of the approximately 400 experts who took part in the questionnaire already
anticipate electric vehicles holding a ten per cent share of the global market
by 2025. In contrast, around 20 per cent predict that it will take until 2050
before electric vehicles hold a significant share of the global market.
Electric mobility deserves an opportunity
Mr Shigeo Ishida (Jatco Ltd.) emphasised the importance of the battery as a key
issue for increasing the market share. "We must give e-mobility a chance," said
Dr Manfred Klüting (BMW Group). He believes that answers need to be found for
developments in the area of the "Mega-City". E-mobility has become the focus of
attention for politicians and customers. As a result, the automobile industry
must, therefore, provide answers in this area. Craig Renneker (Ford Motor
Company) appeared confident that the automobile industry would be successful in
the development of electric vehicles. However, he thinks e-mobility is limited
by the scarcity of resources and the volume of available electricity. In the USA
or China, electricity generation currently represents a challenge to achieving a
market share of ten per cent with electric vehicles.
Plug-in hybrids and range extenders will become widely established
The second question in the TED questionnaire dealt with the increasing
importance of hybrid technologies. A total of 67 per cent of those questioned
anticipate that plug-in hybrids and range extenders will become widely
established by 2025. Only 11.5 per cent tipped parallel hybrids to become
dominant in the future, while 9.7 per cent thought it would be power-split
hybrids, and only 7.9 per cent envisaged it being electric rear axles. "Plug-in
hybrids and range extenders are interpretations of the same theme," according to
Ralf Najork (Schaeffler). The advantages of these drive technologies result from
the customer's ability to choose between electric and conventional drives and
from the fact that they are independent of electrical drives, the expert
explained.
70 g of CO(2) per kilometre is realistic
The questionnaire also asked for people's views on the possibility of further
reducing CO(2) emissions in B-class vehicles in the long term through the
optimisation of conventional drives. The responses indicated a very varied
picture. A total of 33.9 per cent believed that 90 g of CO(2) per kilometre is
achievable. A further 30.7 per cent think 80 g of CO(2) per kilometre is
realistic and 18.7 per cent anticipate 70 g/km. Mr Spicher underlined his belief
in the achievability of 70 g/km. Under real-life conditions, he thinks that the
fuel consumption of a B-class vehicle can be reduced by 1.5 to 2 litres. This
represents a level of CO(2) emissions of around 70 g. The potential for
optimisation is not only limited here to the area of the transmission, but it
includes also the whole drive train and the complete vehicle construction,
commented Mr Spicher. Mr Ishida also pointed to the interaction between engine
and transmission. He stated that the CVT transmission popular in Japan has been
able to achieve almost a 30 per cent saving over the last ten years, and further
increases in efficiency are only achievable here through the interaction with
the engine.
Experts expect significant increases in efficiency
In response to a question about people's expectations for increases in
efficiency within conventional drives over the next five years, over 30 per cent
indicated an increase of between 5 and 10 per cent. A further 22.7 per cent
anticipate an increase in efficiency of between 1 and 5 per cent. However, over
a third of those questioned remained very optimistic. A total of 18.9 per cent
expect improvements of between 10 and 15 per cent and a further 15.4 per cent
even anticipate improvements of greater than 15 per cent. "It will be primarily
a question of the fuel used," stated Mr Spicher. He thinks that gas or bio-fuels
could present totally different perspectives in terms of efficiency. However, Mr
Klüting believes that the weight of the vehicle also plays a decisive role in
optimising efficiency. "If we intelligently implement the technologies already
existing, we could already achieve an increase in efficiency of a few percentage
points today," emphasised Mr Klütung.
Trend points towards more gears
The experts were all in agreement that the use of more gears would play an
increasingly important role in the development of transmissions. The largest
proportion of people - at 41.8 per cent - expect the transmission to be spread
across an average of eight gears in the next ten years. Almost 30 per cent
predict the transmission will be spread over seven gears and 13.8 per cent even
anticipate using nine gears.
Optimistic expectations for the economic development of the automobile industry
The participants of the CTI Transmission Symposium remain highly optimistic
about the development of the automobile industry. Even if the coming year is
expected to be difficult, over 45 per cent believe that there are good prospects
for the future. However, one third of those questioned think that the automobile
industry is entering a second phase of the recession, which would last for a
number of years.
Further information is available at:
http://www.transmission-expo.de
http://www.getriebe-symposium.de/presse
Photographs from the 10th CTI Symposium and the Transmission Expo:
http://www.konferenz.de/fotos-getriebe2011
Contact:
Dr Nadja Thomas
Senior Press Officer
Car Training Institute - a Business Division of EUROFORUM Deutschland SE
Prinzenallee 3
40549 Düsseldorf, Germany
E-mail:nadja.thomas(at)car-training-institute.com
Internet site:www.car-training-institute.com und www.getriebe-symposium.de
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Source: EUROFORUM Deutschland SE via Thomson Reuters ONE
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Datum: 16.12.2011 - 12:32 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 97919
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contact information:
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Kategorie:
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