Iceland Leading Indicator - Fish catches lead the push higher
(Thomson Reuters ONE) -
REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Sept. 19, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Analytica Composite
Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose in August by 0.3 per cent. This follows
a contraction for the past four consecutive months. The values for February
through August were revised downwards. The CLI still indicates growth may be
normalizing.
Three of the six components rose on the previous month. After adjusting for
seasonality and long-term trend there is a rise in the value of fish catches,
merchandise imports and the MSCI World equities index. The increasing value of
fish catches constitutes the single largest factor contributing to the CLI rise.
The long-term trend of some important CLI components remains strong. The main
risk factors continue to include some external factors mainly in relation to the
geopolitical situation. Also, general elections have been announced in Iceland
on October 28. A prolonged government crisis could produce a negative impact.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For August, two of the six underlying components rise year
on year. However, three of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for August drops to 99.6 or by 0.3 per cent. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. February 2018. A
value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017
Change in % Indication
-----------------------
Index on month YOY for month
2016
August 101.2 0.0 % 0.7 % Feb. 2017
September 101.1 0.0 % 0.5 % March
October 101.0 -0.2 % 0.3 % April
November 100.7 -0.3 % -0.2 % May
December 100.3 -0.3 % -0.8 % June
2017
January 100.1 -0.3 % -1.2 % July
February 100.1 0.0 % -1.2 % August
March 100.2 0.1 % -1.0 % Sept.
April 100.1 -0.1 % -1.1 % Oct.
May 99.8 -0.3 % -1.4 % Nov.
June 99.4 -0.4 % -1.7 % Dec.
July 99.3 -0.2 % -1.9 % Jan. 2018
August 99.6 0.3 % -1.6 % Feb.
The September Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on October
18, 2017.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi(at)analytica.is
This announcement is distributed by Nasdaq Corporate Solutions on behalf of Nasdaq Corporate Solutions clients.
The issuer of this announcement warrants that they are solely responsible for the content, accuracy and originality of the information contained therein.
Source: Analytica via GlobeNewswire
Unternehmensinformation / Kurzprofil:
Datum: 19.09.2017 - 10:00 Uhr
Sprache: Deutsch
News-ID 560355
Anzahl Zeichen: 3977
contact information:
Town:
Reykjavik
Kategorie:
Business News
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